NJ Congressional Race Preview

October 26, 2004 by
Filed under: Current Affairs 

This year, the Command Post Election 2004 board has asked me to be a local New Jersey correspondent for this year’s election. I will be posting at that site starting November 1, 2004. This is intended to be fairly objective, though if it is skewed it will likely be due to my general support for liberal causes and Democratic candidates (a fair disclosure, yes?).

In order to get ready, here’s a preview of the NJ Congressional races. All 13 House seats are up for election – neither Senate seat is due for election this year.

Summary: The incumbents are favored heavily in all districts. No House party balance shifts are likely from NJ.

First District: parts of Burlington, Camden and Gloucester counties

The incumbent is Democrat Rob Andrews, who won in 2000 essentially unopposed. The challenger is Republican S. Daniel Hutchison, who beat his opponent in the GOP primary by only 12 votes.

The district is heavily Democratic, so this seat is unlikely to change hands.

Second District: All of Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland and Salem Counties. Part of Burlington, Camden and Gloucester Counties.

The incumbent is Republican Frank LoBiondo, who has served the district since 1995. The challenger is Democrat Timothy Robb, who breaks with the Dems as a pro-lifer and pro-gun candidate.

The district is heavily Republican, but has elected Democrats in the past. Mr. LoBiondo was the first Republican in 20 years when he was elected in 1994.

Third District: parts of Burlington, Camden and Ocean counties

The incumbent is Republican Jim Saxton, who won in 2000 by 57-41%. That race was wider than expected. The challenger is Democrat Herbert Conaway, the NJ Assembly Deputy Speaker. Another interesting candidate is Edward Forchion, who describes himself as “NJ Weedman” and is running as the candidate from the US Marijuana Party.

Jim Saxton has held his seat since 1984, but this district is a tough one. This race will probably go to the incumbent, but will be one of the closer NJ races.

Fourth District: parts of Burlington, Mercer, Monmouth and Ocean counties

(NOTE: I live in this district)

The incumbent is the popular Republican Chris Smith. He’s been consistently re-elected since he beat an Abscam defendant narrowly in 1980. He is a fairly conservative pro-life candidate, with strong support for (and from) veterans. His challenger is Democrat Amy Vasquez, who is running with next to zero budget.

This district consistently goes to Chris Smith, to the point where it’s nearly impossible to find a sacrificial Democratic lamb to run against him. Ms. Vasquez’s only hope is extremely long coattails from John Kerry.

Fifth District: Warren County, parts of Bergen, Passaic and Sussex Counties

The incumbent is Republican Scott Garrett, elected in 2002 after Republican Marge Roukema retired after holding the district for many years. The challenger is Democrat Dorothea A. “Anne” Wolfe, who has held many “behind the scenes” political posts.

This district is strongly Republican, to the point where the Democrats have been forced to run candidates who were more conservative than the Republican in an attempt to win. However, Campaign & Election lists the odds as 7:3 Republican – the 2nd closest race in NJ. This race bears watching.

Sixth District: parts of Middlesex, Somerset, Monmouth and Union counties

(NOTE: This district contains Rutgers University, the NJ state University and my alma mater.)

The incumbent is Democrat Frank Pallone, who defeated his opponent in 2002 soundly by a 68-32 margin. The challenger is Republican Sylvester Fernandez, a former Bell Labs engineer and native of India.

This race is likely to go to Pallone, but may be closer than usual given the shifting populace.
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Seventh District: parts of Hunterdon, Somerset, Middlesex and Union counties

The incumbent is Republican Michael Ferguson, serving his 2nd term. Interesting, he lost to Frank Pallone in the 6th district in 1998, and moved to the 7th district. The challenger is Democrat Steve Brozak, a retired USMC Lt. Colonel who served in Iraq as recently as 2003.

This district is moderate, and Mr. Brozak is running hard by challenging the ethics of Rep. Ferguson. The DC Political Report website has this race as 4:3 Republican – the closest in the state. If a seat turns over, this will be the district.

Eighth District: parts of Essex and Passaic counties

The incumbent is Democrat Bill Pascrell, a longtime politician from the area. The challenger is Republican George Ajjan.

This race seems to be pretty solid for the incumbent.

Ninth District: parts of Bergen, Hudson and Passaic counties

The incumbent is Democrat Steven Rothman, serving his fourth term after a landslide (70-30) in 2002 and sitting on the powerful House Appropriations committee. He was first elected in 1996 to replace Bob Torricelli, who won the Senate seat that year. The challenger is Republican Edward Trawinski.

This seat is the strongest lock for any NJ incumbent with a real opponent.

(Side note: Mr. Rothman spoke to my high school social studies class in 1986 while he was mayor of Englewood, NJ. His cousin was one of my classmates. From what I remember, he’s a nice guy.)

Tenth District: parts of Essex, Hudson and Union counties

The incumbent is Democrat Donald Payne, serving his 8th term as NJ’s first and only African-American congressman. This year as in recent elections, there is no Republican opponent. The closest challenger is Green party candidate Toy-Ling Washington.

This district is expected to be a landslide for Payne. Nobody is going to be staying up past 9:30pm for this race (polls close at 9pm).

Eleventh District: Morris County, parts of Essex, Sussex, Somerset and Passaic counties

The incumbent is Republican Rodney Frelinghuysen, who is serving his 5th term. The challenger is Democrat Jim Buell, who has experience on the Mt. Olive council.

This is the most Republican district in the state, and will probably remain in control of the Republicans in this election.

Twelfth District: parts of Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset and Monmouth counties

The incumbent is Democrat Rush Holt, who allows his constituents to say “My Congressman IS a rocket scientist”. He was elected in 1998 by defeating Republican Michael Pappas, who was successfully linked to extreme conservatism after singing “Twinkle, Twinkle Kenneth Starr, now we see how brave you are …” on the House floor before Clinton’s impeachment. The challenger here is Republican Bill Spadea, who has chosen to label himself conservative against “liberal” Holt.

This race has been the most likely to change parties in the past, and could be close this year. Rush Holt is fairly well-liked by his constituents and has managed to hold his own here.

Thirteenth District: parts of Hudson, Middlesex, Union and Essex counties

The incumbent is Democract Bob Menendez, who is the first Hispanic to hold a leadership post in either house of Congress as chair of the House Democratic Caucus – the #3 Democratic spot. The challenger is Republican Richard Piatkowski, who has served in several Middlesex county Republican posts.

The district is strongly Democratic except when the Democrats shoot themselves in the foot with corruption. In this race, it is expected to remain Democratic this time around.

This district includes Jersey City, the NJ riverfront opposite the World Trade Center site and center of evacuation efforts on 9/11.

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Comments

One Comment on NJ Congressional Race Preview

  1. The Command Post - 2004 US Presidential Election on Mon, 1st Nov 2004 10:50 am

    2. Congressional Race Preview

    New Jersey has 13 House seats up for election this season – neither Senate seat is due this time around. I wrote a summary of the Congressional races in NJ just for Command Post, and I present it here: NJ…

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